Lernayin Artsakh 3–4 Noravank: Result & Stats

Lernayin Artsakh

FT

3 – 4

Noravank

5/30/2021

First League · Round 31Sisian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh42%

×Draw23%

Noravank35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lernayin ArtsakhExpected goals in this matchNoravank

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.53

Lernayin Artsakh

1.69

Noravank

1.53

Lernayin Artsakh creates 10% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 14 away

1.89

creates per match

1.71

1.35

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh

1.89

Noravank

1.71

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh

1.35

Noravank

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par

Noravank+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh ↓

Noravank →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh or draw

65%

Lernayin Artsakh or Noravank

77%

Draw or Noravank

58%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+

21%

Noravank wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals

82%

Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals

50%

Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals

24%

Noravank 1+ goals

78%

Noravank 2+ goals

45%

Noravank 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)

54%

Noravank (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Noravank away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.89 + Noravank defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Noravank attack 1.71 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lernayin Artsakh scores more

42%

level

23%

Noravank scores more

35%

Lernayin Artsakh at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff