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Noravank vs Alashkert II — First League 2019

Noravank
Noravank
CANC
08:00
Alashkert II
Alashkert II
5/24/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Charentsavan City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Noravank60%
×Draw21%
Alashkert II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noravank
2.11
Alashkert II
1.13

Noravank creates 87% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 64 away

creates per match

Noravank
1.64
Alashkert II
1.39

allows per match

Noravank
0.86
Alashkert II
2.58

finishing

Noravank+0.00on par
Alashkert II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noravank ↓

Alashkert II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Noravank or draw
80%
Noravank or Alashkert II
79%
Draw or Alashkert II
40%

Winning margin

Noravank wins by 2+
37%
Alashkert II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Noravank 1+ goals
88%
Noravank 2+ goals
62%
Noravank 3+ goals
35%
Alashkert II 1+ goals
68%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
31%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Noravank (draw refunded)
75%
Alashkert II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noravank at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Alashkert II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noravank attack 1.64 + Alashkert II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.11

Alashkert II attack 1.39 + Noravank defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Noravank scores more
60%
level
21%
Alashkert II scores more
20%

Noravank at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Noravank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Noravank face Alashkert II (First League)

First League returns with Noravank hosting Alashkert II. Match starts May 24, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Noravank host Alashkert II at Charentsavan City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.