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Alashkert II vs Noravank — First League 2019

Alashkert II
Alashkert II
CANC
08:00
Noravank
Noravank
4/5/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Fut Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alashkert II30%
×Draw22%
Noravank48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alashkert II
1.56
Noravank
2.02

Noravank creates 29% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 14 away

creates per match

Alashkert II
1.63
Noravank
1.71

allows per match

Alashkert II
2.34
Noravank
1.50

finishing

Alashkert II+0.00on par
Noravank+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert II ↓

Noravank →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Alashkert II or draw
52%
Alashkert II or Noravank
78%
Draw or Noravank
70%

Winning margin

Alashkert II wins by 2+
14%
Noravank wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Alashkert II 1+ goals
79%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
46%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
21%
Noravank 1+ goals
87%
Noravank 2+ goals
60%
Noravank 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Alashkert II (draw refunded)
38%
Noravank (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

Noravank away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert II attack 1.63 + Noravank defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Noravank attack 1.71 + Alashkert II defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alashkert II scores more
30%
level
22%
Noravank scores more
48%

Noravank at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Noravank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alashkert II host Noravank

April 5, 2021: Alashkert II take on Noravank in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Alashkert II host Noravank at Fut Akademia.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.