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Noordwijk vs Koninklijke HFC — Tweede Divisie 2019

Noordwijk
Noordwijk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC
1/13/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 18Sportpark Duinwetering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Noordwijk42%
×Draw24%
Koninklijke HFC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noordwijk
1.64
Koninklijke HFC
1.46

Noordwijk creates 12% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 99 away

creates per match

Noordwijk
1.70
Koninklijke HFC
1.34

allows per match

Noordwijk
1.58
Koninklijke HFC
1.57

finishing

Noordwijk+0.00on par
Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noordwijk ↓

Koninklijke HFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Noordwijk or draw
66%
Noordwijk or Koninklijke HFC
76%
Draw or Koninklijke HFC
58%

Winning margin

Noordwijk wins by 2+
21%
Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Noordwijk 1+ goals
81%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
49%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
23%
Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals
77%
Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals
43%
Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Noordwijk (draw refunded)
55%
Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noordwijk at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

Koninklijke HFC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.57 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noordwijk attack 1.70 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.64

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.34 + Noordwijk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Noordwijk scores more
42%
level
24%
Koninklijke HFC scores more
34%

Noordwijk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Noordwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Noordwijk vs Koninklijke HFC

Noordwijk and Koninklijke HFC drew 1-1 in Tweede Divisie on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Duinwetering in Noordwijk.