Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Koninklijke HFC vs Noordwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019

Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Noordwijk
Noordwijk
8/19/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 1Sportpark Spanjaardslaan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Koninklijke HFC45%
×Draw25%
Noordwijk30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koninklijke HFC
1.58
Noordwijk
1.24

Koninklijke HFC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 85 away

creates per match

Koninklijke HFC
1.52
Noordwijk
1.46

allows per match

Koninklijke HFC
1.02
Noordwijk
1.65

finishing

Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par
Noordwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koninklijke HFC ↓

Noordwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Koninklijke HFC or draw
70%
Koninklijke HFC or Noordwijk
75%
Draw or Noordwijk
55%

Winning margin

Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+
23%
Noordwijk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals
79%
Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals
47%
Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals
21%
Noordwijk 1+ goals
71%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
35%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)
60%
Noordwijk (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koninklijke HFC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.02 · 97 matches

Noordwijk away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.52 + Noordwijk defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.58

Noordwijk attack 1.46 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Koninklijke HFC scores more
45%
level
25%
Noordwijk scores more
30%

Koninklijke HFC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Koninklijke HFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Koninklijke HFC 2–2 Noordwijk

Koninklijke HFC and Noordwijk drew 2-2 in Tweede Divisie on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Spanjaardslaan in Haarlem.