Noordwijk 0–0 GVVV Veenendaal: Result & Stats

Noordwijk

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

GVVV Veenendaal

11/18/2023

Tweede Divisie · Round 13Sportpark Duinwetering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Noordwijk45%

×Draw23%

GVVV Veenendaal32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NoordwijkExpected goals in this matchGVVV Veenendaal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.47

Noordwijk

1.77

GVVV Veenendaal

1.47

Noordwijk creates 20% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 86 away

1.70

creates per match

1.36

1.58

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Noordwijk

1.70

GVVV Veenendaal

1.36

allows per match

Noordwijk

1.58

GVVV Veenendaal

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Noordwijk+0.00on par

GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noordwijk ↓

GVVV Veenendaal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Noordwijk or draw

68%

Noordwijk or GVVV Veenendaal

77%

Draw or GVVV Veenendaal

55%

Winning margin

Noordwijk wins by 2+

24%

GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Noordwijk 1+ goals

83%

Noordwijk 2+ goals

53%

Noordwijk 3+ goals

26%

GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals

77%

GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals

43%

GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Noordwijk (draw refunded)

58%

GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noordwijk at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

GVVV Veenendaal away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.85 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noordwijk attack 1.70 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.77

GVVV Veenendaal attack 1.36 + Noordwijk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Noordwijk scores more

45%

level

23%

GVVV Veenendaal scores more

32%

Noordwijk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Noordwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff