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GVVV Veenendaal vs Noordwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019

GVVV Veenendaal
GVVV Veenendaal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Noordwijk
Noordwijk
4/20/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 30Sportpark Panhuis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

GVVV Veenendaal43%
×Draw23%
Noordwijk34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GVVV Veenendaal
1.71
Noordwijk
1.50

GVVV Veenendaal creates 14% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 85 away

creates per match

GVVV Veenendaal
1.76
Noordwijk
1.46

allows per match

GVVV Veenendaal
1.55
Noordwijk
1.65

finishing

GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par
Noordwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVVV Veenendaal ↓

Noordwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

GVVV Veenendaal or draw
66%
GVVV Veenendaal or Noordwijk
77%
Draw or Noordwijk
57%

Winning margin

GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+
22%
Noordwijk wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals
82%
GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals
51%
GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals
24%
Noordwijk 1+ goals
78%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
44%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)
56%
Noordwijk (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVVV Veenendaal at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches

Noordwijk away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVVV Veenendaal attack 1.76 + Noordwijk defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

Noordwijk attack 1.46 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

GVVV Veenendaal scores more
43%
level
23%
Noordwijk scores more
34%

GVVV Veenendaal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "GVVV Veenendaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: GVVV Veenendaal 2–1 Noordwijk

GVVV Veenendaal beat Noordwijk 2-1 in Tweede Divisie on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Panhuis in Veenendaal.