Noordwijk 1–1 Excelsior Maassluis: Result & Stats

Noordwijk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Excelsior Maassluis

9/9/2023

Tweede Divisie · Round 4Sportpark Duinwetering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Noordwijk50%

×Draw22%

Excelsior Maassluis28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NoordwijkExpected goals in this matchExcelsior Maassluis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.37

Noordwijk

1.90

Excelsior Maassluis

1.37

Noordwijk creates 39% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 104 away

1.70

creates per match

1.16

1.58

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Noordwijk

1.70

Excelsior Maassluis

1.16

allows per match

Noordwijk

1.58

Excelsior Maassluis

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Noordwijk+0.00on par

Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noordwijk ↓

Excelsior Maassluis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Noordwijk or draw

72%

Noordwijk or Excelsior Maassluis

78%

Draw or Excelsior Maassluis

50%

Winning margin

Noordwijk wins by 2+

28%

Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Noordwijk 1+ goals

85%

Noordwijk 2+ goals

56%

Noordwijk 3+ goals

29%

Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals

75%

Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals

40%

Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Noordwijk (draw refunded)

64%

Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noordwijk at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

Excelsior Maassluis away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.09 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noordwijk attack 1.70 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.90

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.16 + Noordwijk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Noordwijk scores more

50%

level

22%

Excelsior Maassluis scores more

28%

Noordwijk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Noordwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff