Excelsior Maassluis 1–1 Noordwijk: Result & Stats

Excelsior Maassluis

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Noordwijk

10/5/2024

Tweede Divisie · Round 8Sportpark Dijkpolder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Excelsior Maassluis41%

×Draw25%

Noordwijk34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Excelsior MaassluisExpected goals in this matchNoordwijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.40

Excelsior Maassluis

1.55

Noordwijk

1.40

Excelsior Maassluis creates 11% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 85 away

1.46

creates per match

1.46

1.34

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Excelsior Maassluis

1.46

Noordwijk

1.46

allows per match

Excelsior Maassluis

1.34

Noordwijk

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par

Noordwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior Maassluis ↓

Noordwijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Excelsior Maassluis or draw

66%

Excelsior Maassluis or Noordwijk

75%

Draw or Noordwijk

59%

Winning margin

Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+

20%

Noordwijk wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals

79%

Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals

46%

Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals

20%

Noordwijk 1+ goals

75%

Noordwijk 2+ goals

41%

Noordwijk 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)

54%

Noordwijk (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior Maassluis at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 104 matches

Noordwijk away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.46 + Noordwijk defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.55

Noordwijk attack 1.46 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Excelsior Maassluis scores more

41%

level

25%

Noordwijk scores more

34%

Excelsior Maassluis at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Excelsior Maassluis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff