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Noordwijk vs ACV — Tweede Divisie 2019

Noordwijk
Noordwijk
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
ACV
ACV
2/17/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 22Sportpark Duinwetering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Noordwijk46%
×Draw23%
ACV31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noordwijk
1.79
ACV
1.42

Noordwijk creates 26% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 51 away

creates per match

Noordwijk
1.70
ACV
1.25

allows per match

Noordwijk
1.58
ACV
1.88

finishing

Noordwijk+0.00on par
ACV+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noordwijk ↓

ACV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Noordwijk or draw
69%
Noordwijk or ACV
77%
Draw or ACV
54%

Winning margin

Noordwijk wins by 2+
25%
ACV wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Noordwijk 1+ goals
83%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
53%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
26%
ACV 1+ goals
76%
ACV 2+ goals
41%
ACV 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Noordwijk (draw refunded)
60%
ACV (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noordwijk at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

ACV away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noordwijk attack 1.70 + ACV defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.79

ACV attack 1.25 + Noordwijk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Noordwijk scores more
46%
level
23%
ACV scores more
31%

Noordwijk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Noordwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Noordwijk 2–3 ACV

ACV beat Noordwijk 3-2 in Tweede Divisie on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Duinwetering in Noordwijk.