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ACV vs Noordwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019

ACV
ACV
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Noordwijk
Noordwijk
3/15/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 26Sportpark ICT Specialist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ACV39%
×Draw24%
Noordwijk37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACV
1.57
Noordwijk
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 85 away

creates per match

ACV
1.49
Noordwijk
1.46

allows per match

ACV
1.61
Noordwijk
1.65

finishing

ACV+0.00on par
Noordwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACV ↓

Noordwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

ACV or draw
63%
ACV or Noordwijk
76%
Draw or Noordwijk
61%

Winning margin

ACV wins by 2+
19%
Noordwijk wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

ACV 1+ goals
79%
ACV 2+ goals
46%
ACV 3+ goals
21%
Noordwijk 1+ goals
79%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
45%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

ACV (draw refunded)
51%
Noordwijk (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACV at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Noordwijk away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACV attack 1.49 + Noordwijk defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

Noordwijk attack 1.46 + ACV defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ACV scores more
39%
level
24%
Noordwijk scores more
37%

ACV at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ACV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ACV 1 – 6 Noordwijk

Noordwijk beat ACV 6-1 in Tweede Divisie on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark ICT Specialist in Assen.