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Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Si Thammarat — Thai League 2 2018

Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Nakhon Si Thammarat
Nakhon Si Thammarat
4/27/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 34Pitchaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya60%
×Draw22%
Nakhon Si Thammarat18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.88
Nakhon Si Thammarat
0.93

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 102% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 69 away

creates per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
2.05
Nakhon Si Thammarat
0.97

allows per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
0.89
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.72

finishing

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par
Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nong Bua Pitchaya ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw
82%
Nong Bua Pitchaya or Nakhon Si Thammarat
78%
Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat
40%

Winning margin

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
35%
Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
85%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
56%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
29%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals
61%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals
24%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
77%
Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nong Bua Pitchaya at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 2.05 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.88

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 0.97 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
60%
level
22%
Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more
18%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Si Thammarat

Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Nakhon Si Thammarat 5-1 in Thai League 2 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Pitchaya Stadium in Nong Bua Lam Phu.