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Nakhon Si Thammarat vs Nong Bua Pitchaya — Thai League 2 2018

Nakhon Si Thammarat
Nakhon Si Thammarat
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
8/12/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 1Nakhon Si Thammarat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat45%
×Draw25%
Nong Bua Pitchaya30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.55
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.20

Nakhon Si Thammarat creates 29% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 83 away

creates per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.80
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.34

allows per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.06
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.30

finishing

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par
Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Si Thammarat ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nakhon Si Thammarat or draw
70%
Nakhon Si Thammarat or Nong Bua Pitchaya
75%
Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya
55%

Winning margin

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+
23%
Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals
79%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals
46%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals
20%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
70%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
34%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)
61%
Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Si Thammarat at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.06 · 70 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 1.80 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.55

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.34 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more
45%
level
25%
Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
30%

Nakhon Si Thammarat at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nakhon Si Thammarat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Nakhon Si Thammarat 1–1 Nong Bua Pitchaya

Nakhon Si Thammarat and Nong Bua Pitchaya drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Nakhon Si Thammarat Stadium in Nakhon Si Thammarat.