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Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Kanchanaburi — FA Cup 2018

Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kanchanaburi
Kanchanaburiadvanced
12/20/2023FA CupFA Cup · Round of 32Pitchaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya71%
×Draw16%
Kanchanaburi12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nong Bua Pitchaya
2.58
Kanchanaburi
0.98

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 163% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
3.50
Kanchanaburi
1.33

allows per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
0.63
Kanchanaburi
1.67

finishing

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par
Kanchanaburi+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nong Bua Pitchaya ↓

Kanchanaburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw
88%
Nong Bua Pitchaya or Kanchanaburi
84%
Draw or Kanchanaburi
29%

Winning margin

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
50%
Kanchanaburi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
92%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
72%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
47%
Kanchanaburi 1+ goals
62%
Kanchanaburi 2+ goals
26%
Kanchanaburi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
85%
Kanchanaburi (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nong Bua Pitchaya at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Kanchanaburi away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 3.50 + Kanchanaburi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.58

Kanchanaburi attack 1.33 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
71%
level
16%
Kanchanaburi scores more
12%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Kanchanaburi

Kanchanaburi beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1 in FA Cup on December 20, 2023.

The match was played at Pitchaya Stadium in Nong Bua Lam Phu.