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Kanchanaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya — Thai League 2 2018

Kanchanaburi
Kanchanaburi
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
2/11/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 24Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kanchanaburi43%
×Draw25%
Nong Bua Pitchaya32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kanchanaburi
1.50
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.27

Kanchanaburi creates 18% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 83 away

creates per match

Kanchanaburi
1.69
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.34

allows per match

Kanchanaburi
1.20
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.30

finishing

Kanchanaburi+0.00on par
Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kanchanaburi ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kanchanaburi or draw
68%
Kanchanaburi or Nong Bua Pitchaya
75%
Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya
57%

Winning margin

Kanchanaburi wins by 2+
21%
Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kanchanaburi 1+ goals
78%
Kanchanaburi 2+ goals
44%
Kanchanaburi 3+ goals
19%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
72%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
36%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kanchanaburi (draw refunded)
57%
Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kanchanaburi at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kanchanaburi attack 1.69 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.34 + Kanchanaburi defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kanchanaburi scores more
43%
level
25%
Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
32%

Kanchanaburi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kanchanaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kanchanaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya

Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Kanchanaburi 5-1 in Thai League 2 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium in Kanchanaburi.