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Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ayutthaya FC — Thai League 2 2018

Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
FT
2 – 1
Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
10/27/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 34Nong Bua Lam Phu Provincial Sport Stadium (Nong Bua Lam Phu, Mueang Nong Bua Lam Phu District)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya52%
×Draw24%
Ayutthaya FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.71
Ayutthaya FC
1.07

Nong Bua Pitchaya creates 60% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 101 away

creates per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
2.05
Ayutthaya FC
1.25

allows per match

Nong Bua Pitchaya
0.89
Ayutthaya FC
1.38

finishing

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par
Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nong Bua Pitchaya ↓

Ayutthaya FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw
76%
Nong Bua Pitchaya or Ayutthaya FC
76%
Draw or Ayutthaya FC
48%

Winning margin

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
28%
Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
82%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
51%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
24%
Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
66%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
29%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
69%
Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nong Bua Pitchaya at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 2.05 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
52%
level
24%
Ayutthaya FC scores more
24%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ayutthaya FC

Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Ayutthaya FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Nong Bua Lam Phu Provincial Sport Stadium (Nong Bua Lam Phu, Mueang Nong Bua Lam Phu District).