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Ayutthaya FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya — Thai League 2 2018

Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
FT
1 – 1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
2/17/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 22Ayutthaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Ayutthaya FC40%
×Draw26%
Nong Bua Pitchaya34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayutthaya FC
1.42
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 83 away

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.54
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.34

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.26
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.30

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par
Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw
66%
Ayutthaya FC or Nong Bua Pitchaya
74%
Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya
60%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
19%
Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
76%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
41%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
17%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
73%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
37%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
54%
Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 103 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.54 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.34 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more
40%
level
26%
Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
34%

Ayutthaya FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Ayutthaya FC 1–1 Nong Bua Pitchaya

Ayutthaya FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on February 17, 2021.

The match was played at Ayutthaya Stadium in Ayutthaya.