Nõmme United 4–1 Flora II: Result & Stats

Nõmme United

FT

4 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Flora II

7/17/2025

Esiliiga A · Round 14Männiku staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Nõmme United49%

×Draw21%

Flora II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nõmme UnitedExpected goals in this matchFlora II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.56

Nõmme United

2.05

Flora II

1.56

Nõmme United creates 31% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 125 away

2.61

creates per match

2.03

1.09

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Nõmme United

2.61

Flora II

2.03

allows per match

Nõmme United

1.09

Flora II

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nõmme United+0.00on par

Flora II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nõmme United ↓

Flora II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Nõmme United or draw

70%

Nõmme United or Flora II

79%

Draw or Flora II

51%

Winning margin

Nõmme United wins by 2+

28%

Flora II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nõmme United 1+ goals

87%

Nõmme United 2+ goals

61%

Nõmme United 3+ goals

33%

Flora II 1+ goals

79%

Flora II 2+ goals

46%

Flora II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Nõmme United (draw refunded)

62%

Flora II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nõmme United at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

Flora II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.50 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nõmme United attack 2.61 + Flora II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.05

Flora II attack 2.03 + Nõmme United defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nõmme United scores more

49%

level

21%

Flora II scores more

30%

Nõmme United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nõmme United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff