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Flora II vs Nõmme United — Esiliiga A 2026

Flora II
Flora II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
3/30/2025Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 4Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Flora II33%
×Draw20%
Nõmme United46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flora II
1.87
Nõmme United
2.22

Nõmme United creates 19% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 80 away

creates per match

Flora II
2.39
Nõmme United
3.01

allows per match

Flora II
1.43
Nõmme United
1.34

finishing

Flora II+0.00on par
Nõmme United+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora II ↓

Nõmme United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Flora II or draw
54%
Flora II or Nõmme United
80%
Draw or Nõmme United
67%

Winning margin

Flora II wins by 2+
17%
Nõmme United wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Flora II 1+ goals
85%
Flora II 2+ goals
56%
Flora II 3+ goals
29%
Nõmme United 1+ goals
89%
Nõmme United 2+ goals
65%
Nõmme United 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Flora II (draw refunded)
42%
Nõmme United (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora II at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.43 · 125 matches

Nõmme United away — creates 3.01, concedes 1.34 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora II attack 2.39 + Nõmme United defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.87

Nõmme United attack 3.01 + Flora II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Flora II scores more
33%
level
20%
Nõmme United scores more
46%

Nõmme United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nõmme United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flora II vs Nõmme United

Nõmme United beat Flora II 2-0 in Esiliiga A on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.