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Nõmme United vs Elva — Esiliiga A 2026

Nõmme United
Nõmme United
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Elva
Elva
11/9/2025Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 36Männiku staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Nõmme United60%
×Draw20%
Elva20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nõmme United
2.25
Elva
1.25

Nõmme United creates 80% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 126 away

creates per match

Nõmme United
2.61
Elva
1.40

allows per match

Nõmme United
1.09
Elva
1.90

finishing

Nõmme United+0.00on par
Elva+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nõmme United ↓

Elva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Nõmme United or draw
80%
Nõmme United or Elva
80%
Draw or Elva
40%

Winning margin

Nõmme United wins by 2+
37%
Elva wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nõmme United 1+ goals
89%
Nõmme United 2+ goals
65%
Nõmme United 3+ goals
39%
Elva 1+ goals
71%
Elva 2+ goals
36%
Elva 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nõmme United (draw refunded)
74%
Elva (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nõmme United at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

Elva away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nõmme United attack 2.61 + Elva defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.25

Elva attack 1.40 + Nõmme United defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Nõmme United scores more
60%
level
20%
Elva scores more
20%

Nõmme United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nõmme United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nõmme United vs Elva

Nõmme United beat Elva 5-0 in Esiliiga A on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Männiku staadion in Tallinn.