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Elva vs Nõmme United — Esiliiga A 2026

Elva
Elva
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
4/17/2025Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 7Nike Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Elva28%
×Draw20%
Nõmme United52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elva
1.65
Nõmme United
2.27

Nõmme United creates 38% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 80 away

creates per match

Elva
1.96
Nõmme United
3.01

allows per match

Elva
1.53
Nõmme United
1.34

finishing

Elva+0.00on par
Nõmme United+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elva ↓

Nõmme United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Elva or draw
48%
Elva or Nõmme United
80%
Draw or Nõmme United
72%

Winning margin

Elva wins by 2+
13%
Nõmme United wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Elva 1+ goals
81%
Elva 2+ goals
49%
Elva 3+ goals
23%
Nõmme United 1+ goals
90%
Nõmme United 2+ goals
66%
Nõmme United 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Elva (draw refunded)
35%
Nõmme United (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elva at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.53 · 129 matches

Nõmme United away — creates 3.01, concedes 1.34 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elva attack 1.96 + Nõmme United defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.65

Nõmme United attack 3.01 + Elva defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Elva scores more
28%
level
20%
Nõmme United scores more
52%

Nõmme United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nõmme United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elva vs Nõmme United

Nõmme United beat Elva 2-0 in Esiliiga A on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Nike Arena in Elva.