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Nõmme Kalju II vs Luunja — Esiliiga B 2026

Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
FT
0 – 1
Luunja
Luunja
3/4/2024Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 1Nike Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Nõmme Kalju II54%
×Draw19%
Luunja27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nõmme Kalju II
2.45
Luunja
1.71

Nõmme Kalju II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 26 away

creates per match

Nõmme Kalju II
3.17
Luunja
2.15

allows per match

Nõmme Kalju II
1.28
Luunja
1.73

finishing

Nõmme Kalju II+0.00on par
Luunja+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nõmme Kalju II ↓

Luunja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Nõmme Kalju II or draw
73%
Nõmme Kalju II or Luunja
81%
Draw or Luunja
46%

Winning margin

Nõmme Kalju II wins by 2+
34%
Luunja wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nõmme Kalju II 1+ goals
91%
Nõmme Kalju II 2+ goals
70%
Nõmme Kalju II 3+ goals
44%
Luunja 1+ goals
82%
Luunja 2+ goals
51%
Luunja 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Nõmme Kalju II (draw refunded)
67%
Luunja (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nõmme Kalju II at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Luunja away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nõmme Kalju II attack 3.17 + Luunja defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.45

Luunja attack 2.15 + Nõmme Kalju II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nõmme Kalju II scores more
54%
level
19%
Luunja scores more
27%

Nõmme Kalju II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nõmme Kalju II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga B: Nõmme Kalju II 0–1 Luunja

Luunja beat Nõmme Kalju II 1-0 in Esiliiga B on March 4, 2024.

The match was played at Nike Arena in Tallinn.