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Luunja vs Nõmme Kalju II — Esiliiga B 2026

Luunja
Luunja
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
11/10/2024Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 36Tartu Sepa tänava staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Luunja52%
×Draw19%
Nõmme Kalju II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luunja
2.59
Nõmme Kalju II
1.92

Luunja creates 35% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 18 away

creates per match

Luunja
3.07
Nõmme Kalju II
2.61

allows per match

Luunja
1.24
Nõmme Kalju II
2.11

finishing

Luunja+0.00on par
Nõmme Kalju II+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luunja ↓

Nõmme Kalju II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Luunja or draw
71%
Luunja or Nõmme Kalju II
81%
Draw or Nõmme Kalju II
48%

Winning margin

Luunja wins by 2+
33%
Nõmme Kalju II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Luunja 1+ goals
92%
Luunja 2+ goals
73%
Luunja 3+ goals
47%
Nõmme Kalju II 1+ goals
85%
Nõmme Kalju II 2+ goals
57%
Nõmme Kalju II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Luunja (draw refunded)
64%
Nõmme Kalju II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luunja at home — creates 3.07, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Nõmme Kalju II away — creates 2.61, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luunja attack 3.07 + Nõmme Kalju II defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.59

Nõmme Kalju II attack 2.61 + Luunja defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Luunja scores more
52%
level
19%
Nõmme Kalju II scores more
29%

Luunja at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Luunja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga B: Luunja 4–1 Nõmme Kalju II

Luunja beat Nõmme Kalju II 4-1 in Esiliiga B on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Tartu Sepa tänava staadion in Tartu.