Luunja 1–5 Nõmme Kalju II: Result & Stats

Luunja

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Nõmme Kalju II

7/12/2025

Esiliiga A · Round 19Tartu Sepa tänava staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Luunja38%

×Draw20%

Nõmme Kalju II42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuunjaExpected goals in this matchNõmme Kalju II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

2.19

Luunja

2.07

Nõmme Kalju II

2.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 27 away

1.66

creates per match

1.56

2.82

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Luunja

1.66

Nõmme Kalju II

1.56

allows per match

Luunja

2.82

Nõmme Kalju II

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luunja+0.00on par

Nõmme Kalju II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luunja ↓

Nõmme Kalju II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Luunja or draw

58%

Luunja or Nõmme Kalju II

80%

Draw or Nõmme Kalju II

62%

Winning margin

Luunja wins by 2+

21%

Nõmme Kalju II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Luunja 1+ goals

87%

Luunja 2+ goals

61%

Luunja 3+ goals

34%

Nõmme Kalju II 1+ goals

89%

Nõmme Kalju II 2+ goals

64%

Nõmme Kalju II 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Luunja (draw refunded)

47%

Nõmme Kalju II (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luunja at home — creates 1.66, concedes 2.82 · 44 matches

Nõmme Kalju II away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.48 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luunja attack 1.66 + Nõmme Kalju II defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.07

Nõmme Kalju II attack 1.56 + Luunja defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Luunja scores more

38%

level

20%

Nõmme Kalju II scores more

42%

Nõmme Kalju II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nõmme Kalju II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff