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Noja vs Castro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Noja
Noja
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Castro
Castro
2/21/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Campo La Caseta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Noja32%
×Draw26%
Castro41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noja
1.19
Castro
1.39

Castro creates 17% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 96 away

creates per match

Noja
0.91
Castro
1.02

allows per match

Noja
1.75
Castro
1.46

finishing

Noja+0.00on par
Castro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noja ↓

Castro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Noja or draw
59%
Noja or Castro
74%
Draw or Castro
68%

Winning margin

Noja wins by 2+
13%
Castro wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Noja 1+ goals
70%
Noja 2+ goals
33%
Noja 3+ goals
12%
Castro 1+ goals
75%
Castro 2+ goals
40%
Castro 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Noja (draw refunded)
44%
Castro (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noja at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.75 · 32 matches

Castro away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noja attack 0.91 + Castro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.19

Castro attack 1.02 + Noja defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Noja scores more
32%
level
26%
Castro scores more
41%

Castro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Castro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Noja vs Castro

Castro beat Noja 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 21, 2026.

The match was played at Campo La Caseta in Noja.