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Castro vs Noja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Castro
Castro
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Noja
Noja
9/25/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Campo Riomar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Castro59%
×Draw23%
Noja19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castro
1.80
Noja
0.90

Castro creates 100% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 32 away

creates per match

Castro
1.44
Noja
0.78

allows per match

Castro
1.01
Noja
2.16

finishing

Castro+0.00on par
Noja+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castro ↓

Noja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Castro or draw
81%
Castro or Noja
77%
Draw or Noja
41%

Winning margin

Castro wins by 2+
34%
Noja wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Castro 1+ goals
83%
Castro 2+ goals
54%
Castro 3+ goals
27%
Noja 1+ goals
59%
Noja 2+ goals
23%
Noja 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Castro (draw refunded)
76%
Noja (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castro at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Noja away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castro attack 1.44 + Noja defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.80

Noja attack 0.78 + Castro defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Castro scores more
59%
level
23%
Noja scores more
19%

Castro at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Castro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Castro 0–0 Noja

Castro and Noja drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Riomar in Castro Urdiales.