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Noja vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Noja
Noja
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
2/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Campo La Caseta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Noja27%
×Draw24%
Atlético Albericia49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noja
1.18
Atlético Albericia
1.66

Atlético Albericia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 108 away

creates per match

Noja
0.91
Atlético Albericia
1.57

allows per match

Noja
1.75
Atlético Albericia
1.44

finishing

Noja+0.00on par
Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noja ↓

Atlético Albericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Noja or draw
51%
Noja or Atlético Albericia
76%
Draw or Atlético Albericia
73%

Winning margin

Noja wins by 2+
11%
Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Noja 1+ goals
69%
Noja 2+ goals
33%
Noja 3+ goals
12%
Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
81%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
49%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Noja (draw refunded)
36%
Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noja at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.75 · 32 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noja attack 0.91 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.18

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Noja defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Noja scores more
27%
level
24%
Atlético Albericia scores more
49%

Atlético Albericia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlético Albericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Noja vs Atlético Albericia

Atlético Albericia beat Noja 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Campo La Caseta in Noja.