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Atlético Albericia vs Noja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Noja
Noja
10/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Estadio Juan Hormaechea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Atlético Albericia59%
×Draw22%
Noja19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Albericia
1.88
Noja
0.97

Atlético Albericia creates 94% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 32 away

creates per match

Atlético Albericia
1.60
Noja
0.78

allows per match

Atlético Albericia
1.17
Noja
2.16

finishing

Atlético Albericia+0.00on par
Noja+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Albericia ↓

Noja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Atlético Albericia or draw
81%
Atlético Albericia or Noja
78%
Draw or Noja
41%

Winning margin

Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
34%
Noja wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
85%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
56%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
29%
Noja 1+ goals
62%
Noja 2+ goals
25%
Noja 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
75%
Noja (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Albericia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.17 · 108 matches

Noja away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Albericia attack 1.60 + Noja defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.88

Noja attack 0.78 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Atlético Albericia scores more
59%
level
22%
Noja scores more
19%

Atlético Albericia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Atlético Albericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Atlético Albericia 2–2 Noja

Atlético Albericia and Noja drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Hormaechea in Santander.