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Nogoom El Mostakbal FC vs Misr El Makasa — Premier League 2018

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Misr El Makasa
Misr El Makasa
11/21/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Petrosport Stadium (al-Qāhirah (Cairo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC35%
×Draw31%
Misr El Makasa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
1.01
Misr El Makasa
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
0.65
Misr El Makasa
0.87

allows per match

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
1.12
Misr El Makasa
1.37

finishing

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC+0.00on par
Misr El Makasa+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC ↓

Misr El Makasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC or draw
66%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC or Misr El Makasa
69%
Draw or Misr El Makasa
65%

Winning margin

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC wins by 2+
13%
Misr El Makasa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 1+ goals
64%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 2+ goals
27%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 3+ goals
8%
Misr El Makasa 1+ goals
63%
Misr El Makasa 2+ goals
26%
Misr El Makasa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC (draw refunded)
50%
Misr El Makasa (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Misr El Makasa away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC attack 0.65 + Misr El Makasa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.01

Misr El Makasa attack 0.87 + Nogoom El Mostakbal FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC scores more
35%
level
31%
Misr El Makasa scores more
34%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Nogoom El Mostakbal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 0–2 Misr El Makasa

Misr El Makasa beat Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 2-0 in Premier League on November 21, 2018.

The match was played at Petrosport Stadium (al-Qāhirah (Cairo)).