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Misr EL Makasa vs Nogoom El Mostakbal FC — Premier League 2018

Misr EL Makasa
Misr EL Makasa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
5/10/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 32Arab Contractors Stadium (Osman Ahmed Osman Stadium) (al-Qāhirah (Cairo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Misr EL Makasa38%
×Draw27%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Misr EL Makasa
1.27
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Misr EL Makasa
0.94
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
1.12

allows per match

Misr EL Makasa
1.28
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
1.59

finishing

Misr EL Makasa+0.00on par
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Misr EL Makasa ↓

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Misr EL Makasa or draw
65%
Misr EL Makasa or Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
73%
Draw or Nogoom El Mostakbal FC
62%

Winning margin

Misr EL Makasa wins by 2+
17%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Misr EL Makasa 1+ goals
72%
Misr EL Makasa 2+ goals
36%
Misr EL Makasa 3+ goals
14%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 1+ goals
70%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 2+ goals
34%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Misr EL Makasa (draw refunded)
52%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Misr EL Makasa at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Misr EL Makasa attack 0.94 + Nogoom El Mostakbal FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.27

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC attack 1.12 + Misr EL Makasa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Misr EL Makasa scores more
38%
level
27%
Nogoom El Mostakbal FC scores more
35%

Misr EL Makasa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Misr EL Makasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Misr EL Makasa 2 – 1 Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

Misr EL Makasa beat Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 2-1 in Premier League on May 10, 2019.

The match was played at Arab Contractors Stadium (Osman Ahmed Osman Stadium) (al-Qāhirah (Cairo)).