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NoFeL Sporting Club vs Muktijoddha SKC — Premier League 2019

NoFeL Sporting Club
NoFeL Sporting Club
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Muktijoddha SKC
Muktijoddha SKC
2/4/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

NoFeL Sporting Club36%
×Draw26%
Muktijoddha SKC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NoFeL Sporting Club
1.30
Muktijoddha SKC
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 48 away

creates per match

NoFeL Sporting Club
0.83
Muktijoddha SKC
0.92

allows per match

NoFeL Sporting Club
1.75
Muktijoddha SKC
1.77

finishing

NoFeL Sporting Club+0.00on par
Muktijoddha SKC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NoFeL Sporting Club ↓

Muktijoddha SKC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

NoFeL Sporting Club or draw
62%
NoFeL Sporting Club or Muktijoddha SKC
74%
Draw or Muktijoddha SKC
64%

Winning margin

NoFeL Sporting Club wins by 2+
16%
Muktijoddha SKC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

NoFeL Sporting Club 1+ goals
73%
NoFeL Sporting Club 2+ goals
37%
NoFeL Sporting Club 3+ goals
14%
Muktijoddha SKC 1+ goals
74%
Muktijoddha SKC 2+ goals
38%
Muktijoddha SKC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

NoFeL Sporting Club (draw refunded)
49%
Muktijoddha SKC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NoFeL Sporting Club at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Muktijoddha SKC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.77 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NoFeL Sporting Club attack 0.83 + Muktijoddha SKC defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.30

Muktijoddha SKC attack 0.92 + NoFeL Sporting Club defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

NoFeL Sporting Club scores more
36%
level
26%
Muktijoddha SKC scores more
38%

Muktijoddha SKC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Muktijoddha SKC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NoFeL Sporting Club vs Muktijoddha SKC

Muktijoddha SKC beat NoFeL Sporting Club 2-0 in Premier League on February 4, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee)).