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Muktijoddha SKC vs NoFeL Sporting Club — Premier League 2019

Muktijoddha SKC
Muktijoddha SKC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
NoFeL Sporting Club
NoFeL Sporting Club
6/17/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Sheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium (Gopalganj)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Muktijoddha SKC37%
×Draw25%
NoFeL Sporting Club38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muktijoddha SKC
1.41
NoFeL Sporting Club
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 12 away

creates per match

Muktijoddha SKC
1.06
NoFeL Sporting Club
1.08

allows per match

Muktijoddha SKC
1.77
NoFeL Sporting Club
1.75

finishing

Muktijoddha SKC+0.00on par
NoFeL Sporting Club+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muktijoddha SKC ↓

NoFeL Sporting Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Muktijoddha SKC or draw
62%
Muktijoddha SKC or NoFeL Sporting Club
75%
Draw or NoFeL Sporting Club
63%

Winning margin

Muktijoddha SKC wins by 2+
17%
NoFeL Sporting Club wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Muktijoddha SKC 1+ goals
76%
Muktijoddha SKC 2+ goals
41%
Muktijoddha SKC 3+ goals
17%
NoFeL Sporting Club 1+ goals
76%
NoFeL Sporting Club 2+ goals
42%
NoFeL Sporting Club 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Muktijoddha SKC (draw refunded)
49%
NoFeL Sporting Club (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muktijoddha SKC at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.77 · 47 matches

NoFeL Sporting Club away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muktijoddha SKC attack 1.06 + NoFeL Sporting Club defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.41

NoFeL Sporting Club attack 1.08 + Muktijoddha SKC defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Muktijoddha SKC scores more
37%
level
25%
NoFeL Sporting Club scores more
38%

NoFeL Sporting Club at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "NoFeL Sporting Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Muktijoddha SKC 1–1 NoFeL Sporting Club

Muktijoddha SKC and NoFeL Sporting Club drew 1-1 in Premier League on June 17, 2019.

The match was played at Sheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium (Gopalganj).