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NoFeL Sporting Club vs Abahani Chittagong — Premier League 2019

NoFeL Sporting Club
NoFeL Sporting Club
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Abahani Chittagong
Abahani Chittagong
4/12/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

NoFeL Sporting Club31%
×Draw25%
Abahani Chittagong44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NoFeL Sporting Club
1.26
Abahani Chittagong
1.54

Abahani Chittagong creates 22% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 67 away

creates per match

NoFeL Sporting Club
0.83
Abahani Chittagong
1.33

allows per match

NoFeL Sporting Club
1.75
Abahani Chittagong
1.69

finishing

NoFeL Sporting Club+0.00on par
Abahani Chittagong+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NoFeL Sporting Club ↓

Abahani Chittagong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

NoFeL Sporting Club or draw
56%
NoFeL Sporting Club or Abahani Chittagong
75%
Draw or Abahani Chittagong
69%

Winning margin

NoFeL Sporting Club wins by 2+
13%
Abahani Chittagong wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

NoFeL Sporting Club 1+ goals
72%
NoFeL Sporting Club 2+ goals
36%
NoFeL Sporting Club 3+ goals
13%
Abahani Chittagong 1+ goals
79%
Abahani Chittagong 2+ goals
45%
Abahani Chittagong 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

NoFeL Sporting Club (draw refunded)
42%
Abahani Chittagong (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NoFeL Sporting Club at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Abahani Chittagong away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NoFeL Sporting Club attack 0.83 + Abahani Chittagong defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.26

Abahani Chittagong attack 1.33 + NoFeL Sporting Club defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

NoFeL Sporting Club scores more
31%
level
25%
Abahani Chittagong scores more
44%

Abahani Chittagong at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Abahani Chittagong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: NoFeL Sporting Club 0–3 Abahani Chittagong

Abahani Chittagong beat NoFeL Sporting Club 3-0 in Premier League on April 12, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Bulu Stadium (Maijdi (Maijdee)).