Abahani Chittagong vs NoFeL Sporting Club — Premier League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 12+ matches
Abahani Chittagong41%
NoFeL Sporting Club34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Abahani Chittagong creates 10% more chances
Season form · 65 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Abahani Chittagong ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Abahani Chittagong at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 65 matches
NoFeL Sporting Club away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Abahani Chittagong attack 1.20 + NoFeL Sporting Club defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48
NoFeL Sporting Club attack 1.08 + Abahani Chittagong defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.34
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Abahani Chittagong at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Abahani Chittagong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Bashundhara Kings
Abahani
Sheikh Russel
Saif
Arambagh
Sheikh Jamal
Muktijoddha SKCAbahani Chittagong
Mohammedan Dhaka
Rahmatgonj MFS
Brothers UnionNoFeL Sporting Club
Team BJMCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Abahani Chittagong host NoFeL Sporting Club on Sunday, 28 July 2019 at 10:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2019/2020 season.
Abahani Chittagong 0 – 1 NoFeL Sporting Club
NoFeL Sporting Club beat Abahani Chittagong 1-0 in Premier League on July 28, 2019.
Goals: M. Mona (50').
The match was played at Bangabandhu National Stadium (Dhaka).