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Nocerina vs Flaminia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Nocerina
Nocerina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Flaminia
Flaminia
2/4/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 22Stadio San Francesco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Nocerina35%
×Draw27%
Flaminia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nocerina
1.21
Flaminia
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Nocerina
1.18
Flaminia
1.65

allows per match

Nocerina
0.94
Flaminia
1.24

finishing

Nocerina+0.00on par
Flaminia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nocerina ↓

Flaminia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nocerina or draw
62%
Nocerina or Flaminia
73%
Draw or Flaminia
65%

Winning margin

Nocerina wins by 2+
15%
Flaminia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nocerina 1+ goals
70%
Nocerina 2+ goals
34%
Nocerina 3+ goals
12%
Flaminia 1+ goals
72%
Flaminia 2+ goals
37%
Flaminia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nocerina (draw refunded)
47%
Flaminia (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nocerina at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Flaminia away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nocerina attack 1.18 + Flaminia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Flaminia attack 1.65 + Nocerina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nocerina scores more
35%
level
27%
Flaminia scores more
38%

Flaminia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Flaminia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Nocerina 1–0 Flaminia

Nocerina beat Flaminia 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio San Francesco in Nocera Inferiore.