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Flaminia vs Nocerina — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Flaminia
Flaminia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nocerina
Nocerina
10/8/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 5Stadio Turiddu Madami

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Flaminia33%
×Draw30%
Nocerina37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flaminia
0.98
Nocerina
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Flaminia
1.15
Nocerina
1.21

allows per match

Flaminia
0.91
Nocerina
0.82

finishing

Flaminia+0.00on par
Nocerina+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flaminia ↓

Nocerina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Flaminia or draw
63%
Flaminia or Nocerina
70%
Draw or Nocerina
67%

Winning margin

Flaminia wins by 2+
12%
Nocerina wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Flaminia 1+ goals
62%
Flaminia 2+ goals
26%
Flaminia 3+ goals
8%
Nocerina 1+ goals
65%
Nocerina 2+ goals
29%
Nocerina 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Flaminia (draw refunded)
47%
Nocerina (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flaminia at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

Nocerina away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flaminia attack 1.15 + Nocerina defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Nocerina attack 1.21 + Flaminia defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Flaminia scores more
33%
level
30%
Nocerina scores more
37%

Nocerina at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nocerina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Flaminia 1–1 Nocerina

Flaminia and Nocerina drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Turiddu Madami in Civita Castellana.