Noah II 2–2 Andranik: Result & Stats | First League

Noah II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Andranik

3/31/2025

First League · Round 18Fut Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Noah II40%

×Draw23%

Andranik37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Noah IIExpected goals in this matchAndranik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.57

Noah II

1.63

Andranik

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 41 away

1.88

creates per match

1.90

1.24

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Noah II

1.88

Andranik

1.90

allows per match

Noah II

1.24

Andranik

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Noah II+0.00on par

Andranik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noah II ↓

Andranik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Noah II or draw

63%

Noah II or Andranik

77%

Draw or Andranik

60%

Winning margin

Noah II wins by 2+

20%

Andranik wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Noah II 1+ goals

80%

Noah II 2+ goals

48%

Noah II 3+ goals

22%

Andranik 1+ goals

79%

Andranik 2+ goals

46%

Andranik 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Noah II (draw refunded)

52%

Andranik (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noah II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.24 · 41 matches

Andranik away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.39 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noah II attack 1.88 + Andranik defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.63

Andranik attack 1.90 + Noah II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Noah II scores more

40%

level

23%

Andranik scores more

37%

Noah II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Noah II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff