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Andranik vs Noah II — First League 2019

Andranik
Andranik
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Noah II
Noah II
9/18/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Sevan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Andranik47%
×Draw23%
Noah II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andranik
1.83
Noah II
1.42

Andranik creates 29% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 41 away

creates per match

Andranik
1.85
Noah II
1.51

allows per match

Andranik
1.32
Noah II
1.80

finishing

Andranik+0.00on par
Noah II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andranik ↓

Noah II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Andranik or draw
70%
Andranik or Noah II
77%
Draw or Noah II
53%

Winning margin

Andranik wins by 2+
26%
Noah II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Andranik 1+ goals
84%
Andranik 2+ goals
54%
Andranik 3+ goals
28%
Noah II 1+ goals
76%
Noah II 2+ goals
41%
Noah II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Andranik (draw refunded)
61%
Noah II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andranik at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

Noah II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andranik attack 1.85 + Noah II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.83

Noah II attack 1.51 + Andranik defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Andranik scores more
47%
level
23%
Noah II scores more
30%

Andranik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Andranik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Andranik 1–2 Noah II

Noah II beat Andranik 2-1 in First League on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Sevan Stadium in Sevan.