Nkwazi 2–1 NAPSA Stars: Result & Stats

Nkwazi

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

NAPSA Stars

4/15/2026

Super League · Round 29Edwin Imboela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Nkwazi39%

×Draw33%

NAPSA Stars27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NkwaziExpected goals in this matchNAPSA Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.76

Nkwazi

0.97

NAPSA Stars

0.76

Nkwazi creates 28% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 93 away

0.85

creates per match

0.71

0.82

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Nkwazi

0.85

NAPSA Stars

0.71

allows per match

Nkwazi

0.82

NAPSA Stars

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nkwazi+0.00on par

NAPSA Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nkwazi ↓

NAPSA Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Nkwazi or draw

73%

Nkwazi or NAPSA Stars

67%

Draw or NAPSA Stars

61%

Winning margin

Nkwazi wins by 2+

15%

NAPSA Stars wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nkwazi 1+ goals

62%

Nkwazi 2+ goals

25%

Nkwazi 3+ goals

7%

NAPSA Stars 1+ goals

53%

NAPSA Stars 2+ goals

18%

NAPSA Stars 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Nkwazi (draw refunded)

59%

NAPSA Stars (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nkwazi at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.82 · 110 matches

NAPSA Stars away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nkwazi attack 0.85 + NAPSA Stars defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

NAPSA Stars attack 0.71 + Nkwazi defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nkwazi scores more

39%

level

33%

NAPSA Stars scores more

27%

Nkwazi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nkwazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff