NAPSA Stars 1–1 Nkwazi: Result & Stats

NAPSA Stars

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nkwazi

1/18/2025

Super League · Round 20REIZ Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

NAPSA Stars39%

×Draw33%

Nkwazi29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAPSA StarsExpected goals in this matchNkwazi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.81

NAPSA Stars

1.00

Nkwazi

0.81

NAPSA Stars creates 23% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 111 away

1.07

creates per match

0.82

0.80

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

NAPSA Stars

1.07

Nkwazi

0.82

allows per match

NAPSA Stars

0.80

Nkwazi

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NAPSA Stars+0.00on par

Nkwazi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAPSA Stars ↓

Nkwazi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

NAPSA Stars or draw

71%

NAPSA Stars or Nkwazi

67%

Draw or Nkwazi

61%

Winning margin

NAPSA Stars wins by 2+

15%

Nkwazi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

NAPSA Stars 1+ goals

63%

NAPSA Stars 2+ goals

26%

NAPSA Stars 3+ goals

8%

Nkwazi 1+ goals

56%

Nkwazi 2+ goals

19%

Nkwazi 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

NAPSA Stars (draw refunded)

58%

Nkwazi (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAPSA Stars at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.80 · 94 matches

Nkwazi away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAPSA Stars attack 1.07 + Nkwazi defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Nkwazi attack 0.82 + NAPSA Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

NAPSA Stars scores more

39%

level

33%

Nkwazi scores more

29%

NAPSA Stars at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NAPSA Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff