Nkwazi 1–2 Green Buffaloes: Result & Stats

Nkwazi

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Green Buffaloes

8/17/2025

Super League · Round 1Edwin Imboela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Nkwazi38%

×Draw33%

Green Buffaloes29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NkwaziExpected goals in this matchGreen Buffaloes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.82

Nkwazi

0.99

Green Buffaloes

0.82

Nkwazi creates 21% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

0.85

creates per match

0.82

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Nkwazi

0.85

Green Buffaloes

0.82

allows per match

Nkwazi

0.82

Green Buffaloes

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nkwazi+0.00on par

Green Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nkwazi ↓

Green Buffaloes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Nkwazi or draw

71%

Nkwazi or Green Buffaloes

67%

Draw or Green Buffaloes

62%

Winning margin

Nkwazi wins by 2+

15%

Green Buffaloes wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nkwazi 1+ goals

63%

Nkwazi 2+ goals

26%

Nkwazi 3+ goals

8%

Green Buffaloes 1+ goals

56%

Green Buffaloes 2+ goals

20%

Green Buffaloes 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nkwazi (draw refunded)

57%

Green Buffaloes (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nkwazi at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.82 · 110 matches

Green Buffaloes away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.13 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nkwazi attack 0.85 + Green Buffaloes defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Green Buffaloes attack 0.82 + Nkwazi defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nkwazi scores more

38%

level

33%

Green Buffaloes scores more

29%

Nkwazi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nkwazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff