Green Buffaloes 1–2 Nkwazi: Result & Stats

Green Buffaloes

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Nkwazi

11/27/2024

Super League · Round 13Edwin Imboela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Green Buffaloes40%

×Draw31%

Nkwazi29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Green BuffaloesExpected goals in this matchNkwazi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.88

Green Buffaloes

1.09

Nkwazi

0.88

Green Buffaloes creates 24% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

1.26

creates per match

0.82

0.93

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Green Buffaloes

1.26

Nkwazi

0.82

allows per match

Green Buffaloes

0.93

Nkwazi

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Green Buffaloes+0.00on par

Nkwazi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Buffaloes ↓

Nkwazi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Green Buffaloes or draw

71%

Green Buffaloes or Nkwazi

69%

Draw or Nkwazi

60%

Winning margin

Green Buffaloes wins by 2+

16%

Nkwazi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Green Buffaloes 1+ goals

66%

Green Buffaloes 2+ goals

30%

Green Buffaloes 3+ goals

10%

Nkwazi 1+ goals

59%

Nkwazi 2+ goals

22%

Nkwazi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Green Buffaloes (draw refunded)

58%

Nkwazi (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Buffaloes at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

Nkwazi away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Buffaloes attack 1.26 + Nkwazi defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Nkwazi attack 0.82 + Green Buffaloes defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Green Buffaloes scores more

40%

level

31%

Nkwazi scores more

29%

Green Buffaloes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Green Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff