NK Zadar 1–1 Medjimurje Cakovec: Result & Stats

NK Zadar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Medjimurje Cakovec

11/17/2018

First NL · Round 13Stadion Stanovi (Zadar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

NK Zadar65%

×Draw20%

Medjimurje Cakovec15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK ZadarExpected goals in this matchMedjimurje Cakovec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.88

NK Zadar

2.06

Medjimurje Cakovec

0.88

NK Zadar creates 134% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 39 away

1.77

creates per match

0.90

0.85

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

NK Zadar

1.77

Medjimurje Cakovec

0.90

allows per match

NK Zadar

0.85

Medjimurje Cakovec

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Zadar+0.00on par

Medjimurje Cakovec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Zadar ↓

Medjimurje Cakovec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

NK Zadar or draw

85%

NK Zadar or Medjimurje Cakovec

80%

Draw or Medjimurje Cakovec

35%

Winning margin

NK Zadar wins by 2+

40%

Medjimurje Cakovec wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

NK Zadar 1+ goals

87%

NK Zadar 2+ goals

61%

NK Zadar 3+ goals

34%

Medjimurje Cakovec 1+ goals

59%

Medjimurje Cakovec 2+ goals

22%

Medjimurje Cakovec 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

NK Zadar (draw refunded)

81%

Medjimurje Cakovec (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Zadar at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Medjimurje Cakovec away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Zadar attack 1.77 + Medjimurje Cakovec defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.06

Medjimurje Cakovec attack 0.90 + NK Zadar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

NK Zadar scores more

65%

level

20%

Medjimurje Cakovec scores more

15%

NK Zadar at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "NK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff