Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Medjimurje Cakovec vs NK Zadar — First NL 2018

Medjimurje Cakovec
Medjimurje Cakovec
FT
4 – 1
NK Zadar
NK Zadar
I. Ikic 85', 53'
M. Munivrana 70'
I. Rezic 2' (pen)
I. Tokic 48'
5/25/2019First NLFirst NL · Round 26Stadion SRC Mladost (Čakovec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Medjimurje Cakovec52%
×Draw23%
NK Zadar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medjimurje Cakovec
1.88
NK Zadar
1.26

Medjimurje Cakovec creates 49% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 13 away

creates per match

Medjimurje Cakovec
1.52
NK Zadar
1.00

allows per match

Medjimurje Cakovec
1.52
NK Zadar
2.23

finishing

Medjimurje Cakovec+0.00on par
NK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medjimurje Cakovec ↓

NK Zadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Medjimurje Cakovec or draw
74%
Medjimurje Cakovec or NK Zadar
77%
Draw or NK Zadar
48%

Winning margin

Medjimurje Cakovec wins by 2+
29%
NK Zadar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Medjimurje Cakovec 1+ goals
85%
Medjimurje Cakovec 2+ goals
56%
Medjimurje Cakovec 3+ goals
29%
NK Zadar 1+ goals
72%
NK Zadar 2+ goals
36%
NK Zadar 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Medjimurje Cakovec (draw refunded)
67%
NK Zadar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medjimurje Cakovec at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.52 · 40 matches

NK Zadar away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medjimurje Cakovec attack 1.52 + NK Zadar defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.88

NK Zadar attack 1.00 + Medjimurje Cakovec defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Medjimurje Cakovec scores more
52%
level
23%
NK Zadar scores more
26%

Medjimurje Cakovec at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Medjimurje Cakovec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
I. RezicPenalty
48'
I. Tokic
53'
I. Ikic
70'
M. Munivrana
85'
I. Ikic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Medjimurje Cakovec 4–1 NK Zadar

Medjimurje Cakovec beat NK Zadar 4-1 in First NL on May 25, 2019.

Goals: I. Rezic (2' pen), I. Tokic (48'), I. Ikic (53', 85'), M. Munivrana (70').

The match was played at Stadion SRC Mladost (Čakovec).