NK Zadar 2–1 Kamen Ivanbegovina: Result & Stats

NK Zadar

FT

2 – 1

Kamen Ivanbegovina

10/19/2019

Third NL - Jug · South - 9Stadion Stanovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

NK Zadar69%

×Draw18%

Kamen Ivanbegovina13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK ZadarExpected goals in this matchKamen Ivanbegovina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

0.96

NK Zadar

2.41

Kamen Ivanbegovina

0.96

NK Zadar creates 151% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 102 away

2.11

creates per match

0.80

1.11

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

NK Zadar

2.11

Kamen Ivanbegovina

0.80

allows per match

NK Zadar

1.11

Kamen Ivanbegovina

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Zadar+0.00on par

Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Zadar ↓

Kamen Ivanbegovina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

NK Zadar or draw

87%

NK Zadar or Kamen Ivanbegovina

82%

Draw or Kamen Ivanbegovina

31%

Winning margin

NK Zadar wins by 2+

46%

Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

NK Zadar 1+ goals

91%

NK Zadar 2+ goals

69%

NK Zadar 3+ goals

43%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals

62%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals

25%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

NK Zadar (draw refunded)

84%

Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Zadar at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.71 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Zadar attack 2.11 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.41

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 0.80 + NK Zadar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

NK Zadar scores more

69%

level

18%

Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more

13%

NK Zadar at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "NK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff