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Kamen Ivanbegovina vs NK Zadar — Third NL - Jug 2019

Kamen Ivanbegovina
Kamen Ivanbegovina
CANC
00:00
NK Zadar
NK Zadar
4/19/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 24Igralište NK Kamen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina49%
×Draw24%
NK Zadar27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.69
NK Zadar
1.20

Kamen Ivanbegovina creates 41% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.72
NK Zadar
1.11

allows per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.28
NK Zadar
1.67

finishing

Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par
NK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamen Ivanbegovina ↓

NK Zadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kamen Ivanbegovina or draw
73%
Kamen Ivanbegovina or NK Zadar
76%
Draw or NK Zadar
51%

Winning margin

Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+
26%
NK Zadar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals
82%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals
50%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals
24%
NK Zadar 1+ goals
70%
NK Zadar 2+ goals
34%
NK Zadar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)
64%
NK Zadar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamen Ivanbegovina at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.28 · 102 matches

NK Zadar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 1.72 + NK Zadar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

NK Zadar attack 1.11 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more
49%
level
24%
NK Zadar scores more
27%

Kamen Ivanbegovina at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kamen Ivanbegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kamen Ivanbegovina face NK Zadar (Third NL - Jug)

Third NL - Jug returns with Kamen Ivanbegovina hosting NK Zadar. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kamen Ivanbegovina host NK Zadar at Igralište NK Kamen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.