NK Zadar 3–1 Dugopolje: Result & Stats | First NL

NK Zadar

FT

3 – 1

Dugopolje

9/29/2018

First NL · Round 6Stadion Stanovi (Zadar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

NK Zadar55%

×Draw24%

Dugopolje21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK ZadarExpected goals in this matchDugopolje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.94

NK Zadar

1.68

Dugopolje

0.94

NK Zadar creates 79% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 119 away

1.77

creates per match

1.03

0.85

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

NK Zadar

1.77

Dugopolje

1.03

allows per match

NK Zadar

0.85

Dugopolje

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Zadar+0.00on par

Dugopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Zadar ↓

Dugopolje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

NK Zadar or draw

79%

NK Zadar or Dugopolje

76%

Draw or Dugopolje

45%

Winning margin

NK Zadar wins by 2+

30%

Dugopolje wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

NK Zadar 1+ goals

81%

NK Zadar 2+ goals

50%

NK Zadar 3+ goals

24%

Dugopolje 1+ goals

61%

Dugopolje 2+ goals

24%

Dugopolje 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

NK Zadar (draw refunded)

72%

Dugopolje (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Zadar at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Dugopolje away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.59 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Zadar attack 1.77 + Dugopolje defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Dugopolje attack 1.03 + NK Zadar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

NK Zadar scores more

55%

level

24%

Dugopolje scores more

21%

NK Zadar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "NK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff