Dugopolje 1–0 NK Zadar: Result & Stats | First NL

Dugopolje

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

NK Zadar

A. Živković 9'

4/6/2019

First NL · Round 19Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi (Dugopolje)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dugopolje55%

×Draw23%

NK Zadar21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DugopoljeExpected goals in this matchNK Zadar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.02

Dugopolje

1.79

NK Zadar

1.02

Dugopolje creates 75% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 13 away

1.36

creates per match

1.00

1.05

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Dugopolje

1.36

NK Zadar

1.00

allows per match

Dugopolje

1.05

NK Zadar

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dugopolje+0.00on par

NK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugopolje ↓

NK Zadar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dugopolje or draw

79%

Dugopolje or NK Zadar

77%

Draw or NK Zadar

45%

Winning margin

Dugopolje wins by 2+

31%

NK Zadar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dugopolje 1+ goals

83%

Dugopolje 2+ goals

53%

Dugopolje 3+ goals

26%

NK Zadar 1+ goals

64%

NK Zadar 2+ goals

27%

NK Zadar 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dugopolje (draw refunded)

72%

NK Zadar (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugopolje at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.05 · 122 matches

NK Zadar away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugopolje attack 1.36 + NK Zadar defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.79

NK Zadar attack 1.00 + Dugopolje defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dugopolje scores more

55%

level

23%

NK Zadar scores more

21%

Dugopolje at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dugopolje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Živković

46'

K. Jurić← L. Zdrilić

46'

V. Blažević← L. Knežević

70'

R. Nakić← I. Bosančić

72'

M. Jelavić← A. Živković

79'

I. Primorac← I. Rodić

85'

J. Iveljić← N. Llanos

Dugopolje

NK

21

▼

1

15

7

25

3

4

19

▼

Knežević

16

Begić

2

Repić

11

▼

1

5

13

28

10

▼

14

23

2

8

4

▼

Rodić

9

⚽

▼

Živković

Manager: S. Balajić

70'▲R. Nakić←▼I. Bosančić

72'▲M. Jelavić←▼A. Živković

79'▲I. Primorac←▼I. Rodić

Dugopolje substitutes

21Nakić19Jelavić15Primorac24Maglica27Kušeta29Franić12Butara

Manager: M. Karoglan

46'▲K. Jurić←▼L. Zdrilić

46'▲V. Blažević←▼L. Knežević

85'▲J. Iveljić←▼N. Llanos

NK Zadar substitutes

20Jurić99Blažević5Iveljić12Pinčić6Tokić10Župan17Surać

First NL: Dugopolje 1–0 NK Zadar

Dugopolje beat NK Zadar 1-0 in First NL on April 6, 2019.

Goals: A. Živković (9').

The match was played at Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi (Dugopolje).

Dugopolje vs NK Zadar — First NL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First NL: Dugopolje 1–0 NK Zadar