NK Varazdin 2–1 NK Slaven Belupo: Result & Stats

NK Varazdin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

NK Slaven Belupo

4/12/2026

HNL · Round 29Gradski stadion Varazdin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

NK Varazdin44%

×Draw27%

NK Slaven Belupo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK VarazdinExpected goals in this matchNK Slaven Belupo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.10

NK Varazdin

1.41

NK Slaven Belupo

1.10

NK Varazdin creates 28% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 143 away

1.09

creates per match

0.97

1.24

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

NK Varazdin

1.09

NK Slaven Belupo

0.97

allows per match

NK Varazdin

1.24

NK Slaven Belupo

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Varazdin+0.00on par

NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Varazdin ↓

NK Slaven Belupo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

NK Varazdin or draw

71%

NK Varazdin or NK Slaven Belupo

73%

Draw or NK Slaven Belupo

56%

Winning margin

NK Varazdin wins by 2+

21%

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

NK Varazdin 1+ goals

76%

NK Varazdin 2+ goals

41%

NK Varazdin 3+ goals

17%

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals

67%

NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals

30%

NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)

60%

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Varazdin at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 108 matches

NK Slaven Belupo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.73 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Varazdin attack 1.09 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.41

NK Slaven Belupo attack 0.97 + NK Varazdin defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

NK Varazdin scores more

44%

level

27%

NK Slaven Belupo scores more

29%

NK Varazdin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "NK Varazdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff