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NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin — HNL 2018

NK Slaven Belupo
NK Slaven Belupo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin
8/10/2025HNLHNL · Round 2Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

NK Slaven Belupo40%
×Draw28%
NK Varazdin32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Slaven Belupo
1.24
NK Varazdin
1.09

NK Slaven Belupo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 108 away

creates per match

NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
NK Varazdin
0.89

allows per match

NK Slaven Belupo
1.29
NK Varazdin
1.34

finishing

NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par
NK Varazdin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Slaven Belupo ↓

NK Varazdin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

NK Slaven Belupo or draw
68%
NK Slaven Belupo or NK Varazdin
72%
Draw or NK Varazdin
60%

Winning margin

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+
17%
NK Varazdin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals
71%
NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals
35%
NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals
13%
NK Varazdin 1+ goals
66%
NK Varazdin 2+ goals
30%
NK Varazdin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)
55%
NK Varazdin (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Slaven Belupo at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 143 matches

NK Varazdin away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Slaven Belupo attack 1.14 + NK Varazdin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.24

NK Varazdin attack 0.89 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

NK Slaven Belupo scores more
40%
level
28%
NK Varazdin scores more
32%

NK Slaven Belupo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "NK Slaven Belupo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin

NK Slaven Belupo beat NK Varazdin 3-1 in HNL on August 10, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas in Koprivnica.